Tip Germany – Italy
More draws than wins, narrow margins and few goals have been the order in Group 3 of League A in the UEFA Nations League, and fans will be craving some big action when Germany gets to host Italy next. These two sides are separated by two points; Italy leads on five and Germany are third on two. For the hosts, the Nations League hasn’t been very rosy; they have three straight draws in this group, and going into Match Day 4 they’ll want to go for more. In the history of the Nations League, Germany have played 13 matches, and won just two – both against Ukraine. At one point they were thrashed 6-0 by Spain. Though unbeaten in their last 12 matches, Germany have four straight draws going into this game. Each of their last four matches have ended 1-1 and none of the last five has produced over 2.5 goals, and one of these four was against Italy. Four of their last five meetings have also ended in draws at 90 minutes.
Italy are winless in their last five matches against Germany, though they’ve only lost once inside 90 minutes. In a group with just two wins, theirs over Hungary is one of them, and they will be looking for a second win to boost their chances of finishing top. This is a tricky group, with any of the four teams in with a chance to go top, thus we expect a cautious approach from Italy. The visitors aren’t known for their scoring prowess; in the last 10 matches, they’ve managed more than a goal on three occasions only. With two clean sheets only in the last 10, they’ve also been lacking defensively. Italy are coming from a 0-0 draw with England, a game they had a fair share of scoring opportunities but were denied by the superb Aaron Ramsdale. Three of their last five away matches have ended in under 2.5 goals and they’ve failed to score in them. Notably, Italy haven’t lost any of their last five away matches.
Key points Germany – Italy
Three of Italy’s last five away matches ended in under 2.5 goals.
Germany are unbeaten in their last 12 matches.
Italy are unbeaten in five away matches.
Germany’s last five matches have all produced under 2.5 goals.
Four of the last five meetings between these two nations have ended in draws at 90 minutes.
ConclusionGERMANY – ITALY
Italy and Germany matches have been tight in most of their recent meetings. These two face off on the back of shaky performances in the recent games, and more so in the Nations League. Germany, seeking their first win, will want to go all out here, but Italy are expected to play a cautious game, with a keen focus on defending. Not many goals have been witnessed in these two nations’ recent games and here we will stick with under 2.5 goals.